Demand

TWF

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Peterborough
In the 80’s one bank called a lot of loans in , that finished a few .
Are you thinking of the Loyds Names as in insurance.
In 1991, Lloyd's declared a loss for the first time for 20 years. Lloyd's had an unusual structure because capital was not provided by shareholders, instead it came from private individuals known as 'Names'. They traded with unlimited liability, meaning that everything they owned was at risk.16 Apr 2015
 

Ribble

Member
my dad tells me a story about £60,000 he borrowed to buy some land back in the 80’s (i think). He says at the time it was a number that kept him awake at night, something that would take a lifetime to pay back. Given the size of the farm back then he must have been quite highly leveraged i think

few years of inflation later, sat on an asset worth many times the debt he paid off the balance with part of one years profit !

today £60,000 is new car money for many

a million today will feel like a not so big number a decade from now

a lot of debt pays itself, as long as ROI can comfortably service it (stress tested) and the asset is not depreciating where is the risk really ?


The problem with that is your father's generation started the Christmas game of Monopoly and went round the board a few times, bought up some land, and asset prices and rents doubled and tripled.

Later on after a few rolls, you joined the game at a slight disadvantage, and now the grandchildren have been invited to join the game halfway through, and no surprise are at a massive disadvantage to the earlier generations.

That's why the average age of a farmer is retirement age, and most people under 40 are stuck renting at enormous cost in cities.

It's nearly impossible to win if you join the game late.

In this imagined game of monopoly, eventually the grandchildren and the unlucky of your generation who land on community chest are going to go bankrupt, with assets sold at firesale prices on the way down.

It's not a sustainable board game, and it was designed to show us it's not a sustainable system.

It's nice that your old dad got an enormous capital gain. Good on him, as they say don't hate the player, hate the game.

But let's not pretend that generation Z are going to be buying out your generation at 50k an acre when it's time to retire. All the squares are bought, the booze and after eight mints are nearly finished, it's nearly bedtime, and the game isn't lasting much longer.
 

Hilly

Member
has anyone ever seen this ? interest at 0.1% base and predicted to go negative ?

inflation rising fast

money being printed as fast as it can ?

personal and government debt at all time highs ?
No but if inflation get s to much interest rate ^ it’s all good until it’s not , world events .
 

TWF

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Peterborough
But let's not pretend that generation Z are going to be buying out your generation at 50k an acre when it's time to retire. All the squares are bought, the booze and after eight mints are nearly finished, it's nearly bedtime, and the game isn't lasting much longer.
If real inflation is nearer 10%, £50/ac could be achievable . it wouldn't buy you as many Mars Bars though.
 

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
The problem with that is your father's generation started the Christmas game of Monopoly and went round the board a few times, bought up some land, and asset prices and rents doubled and tripled.

Later on after a few rolls, you joined the game at a slight disadvantage, and now the grandchildren have been invited to join the game halfway through, and no surprise are at a massive disadvantage to the earlier generations.

That's why the average age of a farmer is retirement age, and most people under 40 are stuck renting at enormous cost in cities.

It's nearly impossible to win if you join the game late.

In this imagined game of monopoly, eventually the grandchildren and the unlucky of your generation who land on community chest are going to go bankrupt, with assets sold at firesale prices on the way down.

It's not a sustainable board game, and it was designed to show us it's not a sustainable system.

It's nice that your old dad got an enormous capital gain. Good on him, as they say don't hate the player, hate the game.

But let's not pretend that generation Z are going to be buying out your generation at 50k an acre when it's time to retire. All the squares are bought, the booze and after eight mints are nearly finished, it's nearly bedtime, and the game isn't lasting much longer.

im not planning on passing debt to my kids, they will get a load of bought and pad for assets ........ if they behave and i don’t spend it all on retirement instead that is !
 

Ribble

Member
If real inflation is nearer 10%, £50/ac could be achievable . it wouldn't buy you as many Mars Bars though.

I don't doubt the inflation will get there, £100 used to be a salary.

What I doubt is that the upcoming generation are going to be able to afford to buy out the older generation without some rather large changes in the price of assets versus incomes.

Already the average age of a western farmer is retirement age, which tells you that even their childrens generation aged 40 or so can't afford to buy them out.
 

Clive

Staff Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lichfield
most of us remember 2008 and the banks sub prime toxic debt ? inconceivable amounts of money were printed to climb out of that hole ......... surely it was never going to last or work ?

well until 12 months ago it was going pretty well


Covid economy is really just another 2008 and just like they did back then central banks are just printing their way out of it

its like a big reset button - the losers are the savers, the winners those with the debt

if you were in debt 12 month’s ago you are less in debt today

if you had cash savings 12months ago you are not as rich today as you were back then
 

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
I don't doubt the inflation will get there, £100 used to be a salary.

What I doubt is that the upcoming generation are going to be able to afford to buy out the older generation without some rather large changes in the price of assets versus incomes.

Already the average age of a western farmer is retirement age, which tells you that even their childrens generation aged 40 or so can't afford to buy them out.
What do u mean buy them out?
Its all about inheritance now, the accident of birth.
 

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
most of us remember 2008 and the banks sub prime toxic debt ? inconceivable amounts of money were printed to climb out of that hole ......... surely it was never going to last or work ?

well until 12 months ago it was going pretty well


Covid economy is really just another 2008 and just like they did back then central banks are just printing their way out of it

its like a big reset button - the losers are the savers, the winners those with the debt

if you were in debt 12 month’s ago you are less in debt today

if you had cash savings 12months ago you are not as rich as you used to be today
No, the losers are those without property who will never now have the chance to buy.
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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    Votes: 4 1.4%
  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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Expanded and improved Sustainable Farming Incentive offer for farmers published

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Expanded Sustainable Farming Incentive offer from July will give the sector a clear path forward and boost farm business resilience.

From: Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and The Rt Hon Sir Mark Spencer MP Published21 May 2024

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Full details of the expanded and improved Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) offer available to farmers from July have been published by the...
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