Early harvest

Mow

Member
Location
Cheshire
Not a good look
 

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bankrupt

Member
Location
EX17/20
I wonder if matters are made worse than '76 by the amount of up front spending to be recovered from crops today.


Price of wheat helped a bit, too - £83/t = £700+ in today's money.

Against that, land we bought in 1975 was costing 18.5% interest in 1976 - £600+/acre rental equivalent.

But anyone with little or no land charge was laughing all the way to the bank even with a harvest averaging a bit under 1t/acre, as a lot did, hereabouts.

:D :D
 
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A local story (Suffolk Brecks) is that a man went to combine a very sandy 60 acre field of spring barley with his employer’s Claas Senator.
Having finished the field the farm manager decided that it wasn’t worth sending a trailer as the combine tank wasn’t very full of shrivelled grain, so told old Johnny to stick the auger in the wood and feed the pheasants.
 

Muddyboots

Member
Location
Suffolk
Price of wheat helped a bit, too - £83/t = £700+ in today's money.

Against that, land we bought in 1975 was costing 18.5% interest in 1976 - £600+/acre rental equivalent.

But anyone with little or no land charge was laughing all the way to the bank even with a harvest averaging a bit under 1t/acre.

:D :D

I would be a very happy bunny indeed with a ton to the acre @£700 this year!!
 

bankrupt

Member
Location
EX17/20
I would be a very happy bunny indeed with a ton to the acre @£700 this year!!
Yes, life's far more complicated now than it was in 1976, Muddyboots, not least because of the sharp fall in the real value of grain.

Our average breakeven yield then was 0.8t/acre and now, with still a very similar mix of land paid off and not paid off, and the austerity practiced here notwithstanding, it's grown to more than 1.8t/acre.

In years when yields are limited by plant population, root disease, tillering, foliar disease, lodging, brackling, ear loss or sprouting, just follow the HGCA instructions on the tin (bag) and a profit is assured.

When yields are limited solely by available moisture, however, we're all well up the creek here in the UK and, for consolation, may need to phone a friend in Arizona or Western Australia, if we have one.

? ?

edit:- luckily, we got more than 0.8t here in 1976, due to the rain on 19th June, but 1.8t still seems well out of reach this time.
 
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Widgetone

Member
Trade
Location
Westish Suffolk
Price of wheat helped a bit, too - £83/t = £700+ in today's money.

Against that, land we bought in 1975 was costing 18.5% interest in 1976 - £600+/acre rental equivalent.

But anyone with little or no land charge was laughing all the way to the bank even with a harvest averaging a bit under 1t/acre, as a lot did, hereabouts.

:D :D
Can offer you a load or three, even show you a profit - shall we settle at a round £600?
 

Minesapint

Member
Location
Oxon
Where does that leave the w barley, MOIC-wise?
It is not going to be pretty! No autumn residuals applied, but will pay for that with BG seed return. We always run out of water here, but not this early. Barley normally does OK being that bit earlier, but this was mauled in the end of October, has very little root structure, and is dying on its feet. It was similar last year, but rain arrived just in time, and we averaged 3.7/acre, but I fear the boat has sailed this time. Hopefully will get something for HSS.
 

Hesstondriver

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Huntingdon
there was a field of WB combined about 26 th June near Huntingdon a few years ago as it burnt off. the same field is in WB barley this year and is still very green and head not going over yet.
 

bankrupt

Member
Location
EX17/20
there was a field of WB combined about 26 th June near Huntingdon a few years ago as it burnt off. the same field is in WB barley this year and is still very green and head not going over yet.
Similar here - field cut 29th June 1984 into WB again this time.

Still quite green and head not going over yet but put this down to it being, due to the prevailing weather conditions, very much thinner and with much shorter ears than in 1984.

Certainly not expecting more than the 1.8t/acre we got then.
 

bankrupt

Member
Location
EX17/20
next year is going to be a real struggle.
Same here, Jo28.

My take is to gain advantage from the banks' current easier lending criteria in order to beef up facilities to withstand a year or two of upcoming grief.

This window may not be open for too much longer - in fact HM Treasury seems already to be rowing back fairly fast on its package of all the goodies.

 
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B'o'B

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Rutland
I've been looking at our historic yields and currently we are in crop condition terms pretty close to how we were in 2011, however that year we got a bit over an inch of rain in(I think) about 5 days time which got us to an average of 7.6t/ha. 2012 was the worst of my farming career at an average 6.5t/Ha.
I fear if the forecast is right we may well end up being well south of that, as there is no moisture left for grain fill. Crops that complete flowering under such moisture stress just give up as soon as a viable seed has been made and the earlier wheats are now just starting to flower, with no rain in sight it doesn't bode well.
I feel a very depressing couple of weeks ahead as I rapidly watch yield potential vanish, if the forecast is right I could see sub 5t/ha becoming a new low benchmark for our farm, and for at least the last 30 years we haven't ever dropped below 6.5t/ha as an average.
We are about to enter uncharted territory!
 

David.

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
J11 M40
I have see barley cut on Purbeck in June more than once, going back before we were married and used to take regular holiday last week of June.
This prolonged hot drying weather now is about the worst possible scenario, well, unless you have found some grass to make into hay.
 

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