Rent Per acre without BPS

[B'o'B]

I think you are missing the point.
If your big contracting operators drop large acreages
through over exposure to borrowed money there are
plenty of established farmers who would have a go at a rent they think
is sensible .
The market price at the time would dictate the rent but can't see
existing or new tenants mopping up ground very cheap over
financially secure owner farmers.

I would think in the example of the £180/a with BPS rent above. The rent would half to £90/a at the very least otherwise the current established and financially secure farm would already be having a go, and that is assuming they think £180/a is only £10/a too excessive. And that’s without anyone going bust into the bargain.

 

[B'o'B]

Also most of the financially secure farmers I know seem to be pretty happy as they are and not really at a time of life when they want to double their area with rents.

 

[glasshouse]

Here is what happened last time we had free trade

 

[glasshouse]

Here is what happened last time we had free trade

 

[glasshouse]

Continued

 

[egbert]

Tenant Farmers are pretty much history very quickly if the BPS doesnt get replaced with ELMS or whatever its going to be & your total yearly income
doesnt take a huge hit, its as simple as that.
Plus AHA rents are all decided on the max earning Cap of the Holding & comparable like the Farm in the locality
Remove the BPS then you have removed the earning Cap its should be as simple as that
but it wont be, there is some fighting & tougher times ahead thats the bigger concern

i;m sorry for those to whom this applies...but it sure ain't me.

My HLS is worth about as much as my BPS, and looks likely to be replaced with some public goods nonsense.
My authorised (but not conflicting with AHA) diversification businesses would pay the rent at a push -esp if I didn't have to run round after those silly animals,
I already have in place a 'tenants timber crop' template, where I've planted trees which remain the tenants property until i quit, whereupon they're valued as such, so I could easily take the Queeens shilling and roll that out if it goes that way -and the LL agrees.

I have grave concerns about our future, but certainly not on my own account.

the big losers will be those with whom I spend my BPS...they'll know it pretty quick!

 

[Brisel]

the big losers will be those with whom I spend my BPS...they'll know it pretty quick!

Very much this

Who benefits from BPS? John Deere, Fendt, Vaderstad etc. Agrii/Procam etc Don't forget Tesco, Morrisons etc too

 

[lloyd]

Very much this

Who benefits from BPS? John Deere, Fendt, Vaderstad etc. Agrii/Procam etc Don't forget Tesco, Morrisons etc too

I would say the general public benefited by having over
supply of domestic food chasing the price down.
Yes we can Import when global prices are low but their
prices are on the rise and some are already dearer than ours.
Chinese food prices are soaring higher.
Global food prices are on the rise so if production is reduced
In the UK and reliant on imports I can see high inflation heading
our way.
Cheap global prices are yesterday's news!

 

[lloyd]

Continued

The population of the UK are soon going to be four
times that of 1880 and as much as I like history you also
need to be realistic .
I think your going to be very disappointed if you think
there is going to be rack and ruin in the countryside to the extent
of landowners begging you to rent their ground.

 

[Grassman]

Very much this

Who benefits from BPS? John Deere, Fendt, Vaderstad etc. Agrii/Procam etc Don't forget Tesco, Morrisons etc too

They do to a certain degree. But if we stop buying machinery then there will be a cost. We can only do it for so long. Eventually the supply of decent secondhand machinery will shrink drastically a d then we will have to pay a premium for it. Repair costs will soar.
And ultimately new machinery will go up in price due to lack of volume in manufacturing. So be careful what you wish for.
The main beneficiary of subsidy is the landowners and the general public when buying food.

 

[glasshouse]

Very much this

Who benefits from BPS? John Deere, Fendt, Vaderstad etc. Agrii/Procam etc Don't forget Tesco, Morrisons etc too

Dont forget savills, strutt and posture, hrh ER2
Chas, all the dukes and earls etc

 

[B'o'B]

I would say the general public benefited by having over
supply of domestic food chasing the price down.
Yes we can Import when global prices are low but their
prices are on the rise and some are already dearer than ours.
Chinese food prices are soaring higher.
Global food prices are on the rise so if production is reduced
In the UK and reliant on imports I can see high inflation heading
our way.
Cheap global prices are yesterday's news!

I'm not so sure Global food price increases are actually a long term trend just yet. It's clear from government statements food production will not be subsidised in the UK without a major policy shift.

Food production will need to stand on its own two feet going forward and how that works out for us depends very much on what happens with the trade negotiations. We are already heavily reliant on imports, in essence those imports already set our domestic price, not the other way around.

Environmental benefits will be paid for, but we have very little idea how or what that actually means or what string will be attached. This will be a cultural shift like we haven't seen for many years, we are going to be encouraged to be land managers, as far as government policy is concerned any food production will be incidental.

 

[glasshouse]

The population of the UK are soon going to be four
times that of 1880 and as much as I like history you also
need to be realistic .
I think your going to be very disappointed if you think
there is going to be rack and ruin in the countryside to the extent
of landowners begging you to rent their ground.

They will be begging, just wait

 

[lloyd]

They will be begging, just wait

Didn't anyone let you know Corbyn lost

 

[Brisel]

Didn't anyone let you know Corbyn lost

Sturgeon won in Scotland though.

 

[ajd132]

I think you are missing the point.
If your big contracting operators drop large acreages
through over exposure to borrowed money there are
plenty of established farmers who would have a go at a rent they think
is sensible .
The market price at the time would dictate the rent but can't see
existing or new tenants mopping up ground very cheap over
financially secure owner farmers.

Is everyone operating a large acerage heavily borrowed? What is heavily borrowed? Everyone I know doing contract farming and renting land have established family farming bases anyway?

 

[lloyd]

QUOTE="Brisel, post: 6720021, member: 166"]
Sturgeon won in Scotland though.
[/QUOTE]

Small over sight on my behalf

 

[lloyd]

Is everyone operating a large acerage heavily borrowed? What is heavily borrowed? Everyone I know doing contract farming and renting land have established family farming bases anyway?

Should of read 'some of' was replying to a scenario put forward
in another post.

 

[Brisel]

I'm not so sure Global food price increases are actually a long term trend just yet. It's clear from government statements food production will not be subsidised in the UK without a major policy shift.

Food production will need to stand on its own two feet going forward and how that works out for us depends very much on what happens with the trade negotiations. We are already heavily reliant on imports, in essence those imports already set our domestic price, not the other way around.

Environmental benefits will be paid for, but we have very little idea how or what that actually means or what string will be attached. This will be a cultural shift like we haven't seen for many years, we are going to be encouraged to be land managers, as far as government policy is concerned any food production will be incidental.

This. Food represents less than 10% of the average UK consumer's income, so their buying power is much higher than that of a developing country should global food supplies run short. We would see another Arab Spring and African riots long before UK supermarket shelves run empty. Only a sustained threat to food supplies would trigger a return to incentivising UK food production IMO, not price.

 

[som farmer]

This. Food represents less than 10% of the average UK consumer's income, so their buying power is much higher than that of a developing country should global food supplies run short. We would see another Arab Spring and African riots long before UK supermarket shelves run empty. Only a sustained threat to food supplies would trigger a return to incentivising UK food production IMO, not price.

in the mid 1800's, food took 70% of average wage, down to sub 10% now, that is a massive change. It is what that 60% is spent on, that is the question. There is an answer that says its spent on interest on maxed out credit cards !
But it is spent on 'liesure', ie, holidays, eating out, luxury goods etc. If food costs rise, there will be less to spend on those goods, the result, a very unhappy electorate, and they will blame whoever is in power, and power will change.
So, a fundamental basic, of staying in power, is to keep food costs down, how ? Well, I think it is pretty obvious that cheaper will be imported, whatever lip service is said. At the same time, I think, money will flow from gov, to farmers, under all sorts of grants etc, aimed to produce cheap food, it will be technology, to help us farm more efficiently, grants for the environment, and many other things. But, by taking advantage of a 40% grant, we still have to find 60% ,to cover the rest, which, we are told, will enable us to produce more, cheaper. After all, the sfp has been factored into the price we are paid, the answer lies in reducing production, proven by the fact, that every one tells us to produce more, to spread costs of 'improvements' over more acres, cows, sheep etc !