Brexit and lamb prices.

[neilo]

Because they're still selling hoggs when new season are available , hence it fooks both jobs , imo

There's a big gap between Christmas and any NSL being available in volume. If all the hoggets were sold pre-Christmas, the Autumn glut would be much worse, depressing prices further, and there would be a long period with little lamb in the market, sucking in NZ product.

 

[Smith31]

Those farmers that hedged their bets and sold some/all before the end of December haven't taken a hit. Prices have been good all year, and they sold well before Christmas.

There's a big difference between taking a hit, and not making as much as they might have, had they taken the gamble on deal or no deal.

Many were selling off much earlier then December

 

[steveR]

Because they're still selling hoggs when new season are available , hence it fooks both jobs , imo

As a complete non-expert on marketing sheep, I do recall a conversation with a buyer a couple of years ago, who reckoned the need for older lamb to keep being marketed late in the Spring for the ethnic communities was important, as young lamb was not the meat of choice.

 

[Farmer1001]

I was actually alluding to your comment, "You do realise we have a deal that retains the same EU access as before?" Rather than the suggestion "move on"....!

Yes good point. Not entirely as before but tariff and quota free as before.

 

[Bury the Trash]

Because they're still selling hoggs when new season are available , hence it fooks both jobs , imo

I see, since your here with that knowledge on the sheep trade how do you explain the importing of nz lamb in that particular period you refer to?

 

[neilo]

Many were selling off much earlier then December

And presumably happy with the good prices being offered then?

They haven't taken a hit, they just haven't made as much as they might if they'd sat on them to put a glut on the market now, even if they had the capacity to sit on them until now.

 

[bobk]

I see, since your here with that knowledge on the sheep trade how do you explain the importing of nz lamb in that particular period you refer to?

There's no need to be sarcastic , I don't know much about sheep , but I probably forgotten more than you know

 

[steveR]

Yes good point. Not entirely as before but tariff and quota free as before.

Granted it is early days, but I don't think any scottish seafood producer would agree at the moment, not indeed the wagons hauling chilled lamb.

Well, I live in hope....

 

[andybk]

There's a big gap between Christmas and any NSL being available in volume. If all the hoggets were sold pre-Christmas, the Autumn glut would be much worse, depressing prices further, and there would be a long period with little lamb in the market, sucking in NZ product.

the recent trend for selling hoggs in march- april and beyond has killed the early poll dorset spring lamb job , its a higher risk / cost , and to compete in any number with many 000s of old season is very difficult past a specific market , that and extra imports from NZ in our peak season (summer ) pushing home crop marketing later

 

[quavers]

The main problem is that most of us are going to be paying far more tax next year. You just can't win.

cant see paying tax is a problem ? it means your making money

 

[bobk]

the recent trend for selling hoggs in march- april and beyond has killed the early poll dorset spring lamb job , its a higher risk / cost , and to compete in any number with many 000s of old season is very difficult past a specific market , that and extra imports from NZ in our peak season (summer ) pushing home crop marketing later

Agree entirely , also due to lack of NZ lamb this year ( dribs and drabs ) our own lamb has not been undermined .

 

[Tim W]

It almost sounds like you farm in a lowland/arable area?

That's true but it doesn't alter the facts

 

[Bury the Trash]

All NZ lamb in france is frozen

No its not.

 

[MDL POWERUP]

That's true but it doesn't alter the facts

Most sheep farmers are farming in areas where arable isn't possible. So the fact they are going to have to sell their farms to buy expensive arable land to then farm sheep along an arable operation is unrealistic. Or you have arable farmers suddenly having a desire to chase sheep around in the rain in winter instead? It's all well saying from an industry point of view but the industry needs the people in it.

 

[No wot]

Sheep sector does not get direct support and hasn't done for a while (support has been land based not sheep based) and when done right doesn't need it
Land based subsidy is shifting to ''green'' value led results that will most likely impinge on the ability to farm productively
Hence all sectors will have to stand on their own two feet --this i think will lead to a move from sheep in the hills/moors etc to greater emphasis on lamb production in lowland /arable integrated systems
What's not to like from an industry point of view?
Clean grazing = good growth & less welfare issues (worms are #1 welfare issue in lamb production)
Grazing animals on arable systems = less artificial N use & potentially less herbicide/pesticide use?

Certainly admire your optimism, good for you , However be careful what you wish for , one of the best paying grass based options for arable farmers has to be AB15 legumus grass option that is 2yr ley rotated around your farm and cannot be grazed , but will have topping costs and establishment costs but no hassle dealing with a third party, but yes there will be potential for grazing on arable farms also

 

[Bury the Trash]

Sheep sector does not get direct support and hasn't done for a while (support has been land based not sheep based) and when done right doesn't need it
Land based subsidy is shifting to ''green'' value led results that will most likely impinge on the ability to farm productively
Hence all sectors will have to stand on their own two feet --this i think will lead to a move from sheep in the hills/moors etc to greater emphasis on lamb production in lowland /arable integrated systems
What's not to like from an industry point of view?
Clean grazing = good growth & less welfare issues (worms are #1 welfare issue in lamb production)
Grazing animals on arable systems = less artificial N use & potentially less herbicide/pesticide use?

yes and thats the big 'new' idea it seems ,except its not a new idea its what weve always done.

its an Easier job than it would be on a hill in a less favoured area mind you.

 

[CopperBeech]

There are a great number of farmers who cannot afford to take risks or hold on to stock. They took the sensible decision and sold as we were staring at a no deal, these farming families will have taken a hit for many thousands which they can ill afford.

I actually like Boris but you can not give him credit for securing a deal at the last minute which should have been sorted months ago.

I still dont get it. My sheep pay all of my bills and i dont get any sub, so I would have been fairly screwed. Its called playing the market, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. The lamb job was plenty good enough for most of December, they sold for not a bad price, the store job was on fire. The price didn't go down it went up and now those who gambled are reaping the rewards . . . . . this time. Could be different for them next time. You can't blame anyone else.

 

[neilo]

the recent trend for selling hoggs in march- april and beyond has killed the early poll dorset spring lamb job , its a higher risk / cost , and to compete in any number with many 000s of old season is very difficult past a specific market , that and extra imports from NZ in our peak season (summer ) pushing home crop marketing later

Early poll Dorset lambs have only ever been a tiny percentage of UK lamb production, and practically non-existent anywhere but the warm climes of the South West.

Hogget production is hardly a recent trend anyway. There have been sheep folded over roots for centuries, and we were selling all ours as Hoggets in March/April when I got involved with the business in the 80's. I spread my bets a bit more now, and will be selling a lower proportion in March/April than we did 30 years ago.

 

[ISCO]

Yes , didn't turn out to well for em , they were touting that jo swinson would be next PM

That is what stopped me voting for them. They were going to ignore the referendum result. Even Corbyn was going to offer a second referendum on his super deal.

 

[neilo]

Certainly admire your optimism, good for you , However be careful what you wish for , one of the best paying grass based options for arable farmers has to be AB15 legumus grass option that is 2yr ley rotated around your farm and cannot be grazed , but will have topping costs and establishment costs but no hassle dealing with a third party, but yes there will be potential for grazing on arable farms also

I'm buggered if I'd want to be basing an entire business around the whims of whatever 'green' policy the government of the day has, and on the whims of an arable farmer, or worse still, those of his consultant/adviser from a shiny suited land agent's office.